Tax Shifts

Much has already been said in the lefty blogosphere about Bush's new plan to pay for deep cuts in taxes on investment income by eliminating deductions for state and local taxes, plus business tax deductions for employer-provided health insurance. Dan Froomkin (writing in the Washington Post) has a pithy summary of the commentary:

As far as trial balloons go, however, this one has some diabolically clever politics to it. Consider who would be the big losers if state and local tax deductions were eliminated: People living in high-tax, high-services cities, counties and states. Most of those, I'm willing to bet, are blue-voter territory.

As for reducing the incentive for employers to provide health insurance, I guess that the ensuing loss of health coverage would -- among other things -- increase demand for tax-free health savings accounts?

45 million Americans lack health insurance, and the percentage of Americans under age 65 with employer-provided coverage is declining. Most people would probably look at that situation and conclude that the last thing the country needs is to take away incentives to provide employees with health coverage, but then, most people don't have the profound analytic capabilities of "America's first CEO president."

The Bush Administration champions "Health Savings Accounts," in which people are allowed to place money into tax-free accounts to pay for health care deductibles and uncovered expenses. The idea is supposed to be that health care magically becomes cheaper because patients don't waste money on unnecessary medical visits and procedures.

The idea of getting consumers to bear the upfront costs of medical care is that they will spend more responsibly because the money is coming from their own pocket. Maginnis said early figures with the high-deductible plans show a 20 percent drop in spending. "People are being more careful," he said.

But it is unclear whether policyholders are trimming back on frivolous procedures or on medical care they may need.

No, in fact, it isn't unclear at all.

If you have employer-sponsored health insurance, cast your memory over the things they have recently paid for. Did any of it involve "frivolous procedures?" Did you have medical procedures just for the fun of it, or take prescribed-and-covered medications recreationally? Are your insurance company's rules so loose and easy that they'll cover any damn thing, regardless of its medical necessity? Me neither.

The AMA knows what people cut when they have no insurance, or incredibly high deductibles: ongoing care and monitoring for chronic diseases, diagnostic tests, checkups, well-child visits, preventive care. Frivolous expenses like that. Patients "ration out" their blood-pressure medicine, taking half the dosage to make it last twice as long. (Yes, I have seen this many times.) They don't want to pay for ongoing Pap smears, so they wind up with carcinoma in situ . And they wind up in the ER with complications from untreated chronic problems, requiring care that is considerably more expensive than the ongoing management they thriftily refused.

This is not news to anyone who works in health care, or, for that matter, anyone who has been uninsured or underinsured. It is only news to the high-minded industry lobbyists who say things like, “The theme will be individual empowerment. We will see a shift to more responsibility on individuals to provide for their own health and retirement security.”"

But in any case, Health Savings Accounts will not help you if your employer decides to respond to the proposed tax code changes by dropping employee health benefits altogether. Even assuming - and it's a big assumption - that you have the disposable income to set aside savings at the maximum allowable rate ($2,600 for an individual, $5,100 for a family), a single emergency visit could easily wipe out your HSA savings. It's unlikely to be enough money to purchase an individual insurance policy. In short, it's no substitution for traditional medical insurance or HMO policies.

"Individual empowerment." When you hear that phrase coming from the Bush Administration, put one hand securely on your wallet and use the other hand to ward off the baseball bat.

The Military Draft Begins

They're too smart, too media-savvy, to go after nineteen-year-old college boys. But never mistake this for anything but a draft:

David M. Miyasato enlisted in the U.S. Army Reserve in 1987, served three years of active duty during the first Gulf War and received an honorable discharge in 1991. He remained on inactive status for five more years, until 1996. Since then, the Kaua'i resident has married, started an auto window tinting business and this year, he and his wife had their first child.

But in September, Miyasato received a letter from the Army recalling him to active duty and directing him to report to a military facility in South Carolina on Tuesday.

Or this:

Pistorius was honorably discharged from the Army in July 20, 2001. His certificate of release attests to his accomplishments: Army Achievement Medal, National Defense Service Medal, Sharpshooter qualification. The upper corner is the spot in which the military lists a departing member's reserve obligation, the amount of time discharged soldiers, sailors and Marines remain subject to recall. For Pistorius, the boxes contain a succession of zeroes.

Because he was discharged well after his prior reserve obligation had passed, the Army laid no further claim to him, until someone in St. Louis ignored those zeroes and went hunting for a fresh body to fill a manpower shortage that grows more painful with every Iraqi sunset.

"They basically told me that my Marine Corps time doesn't count as military service," Pistorius said. Faced with a threat of AWOL charges, and worried that a spotless military record was about to be stained, Pistorius headed last month to Camp McGrady in South Carolina.

This New York Times article has more context, although it confuses matters by mixing together the stories of former soldiers who (understandably) never thought their Individual Ready Reserves obligations would be called in, and those who have legitimately discharged all military obligations. The NY Times article also makes it clear that veterans with the wherewithal to sue are generally able to extricate themselves from the draft - leaving the less informed and those with fewer resources bound for Iraq.

I've long argued that a military draft is unlikely because the military themselves don't want it. The modern U.S. armed forces are not looking for untrained cannon fodder. But this backdoor draft removes the military objection to the draft; while Pistorius and Miyasato may be rusty and out-of-shape, they have the skills, training, and experience needed to be soldiers. And calling them up for active duty doesn't sound like a draft to the average reporter or citizen on the street. They're soldiers being called back to active duty. Surely that's different from Joe College getting a letter from his draft board, right?

Wrong.

Pistorius and Miyasato are civilians. They owe the military no further service. The military has precisely as much right to call them up for active duty as it has the right to call up pregnant, disabled, thoroughly civilian me. These stories are not about a "recall to active duty," they are about a draft.

A Colonel Hart, in the NY Times story, responds to the successful lawsuits by declaring them proof that "the system works." But Pistorius' story makes it clear that even those veterans who eventually manage to avoid the draft have suffered harm from the attempt to deprive them of their liberty:

Suddenly, on Nov. 5, Pistorius was ordered to pack up. He was driven to the airport and told he was going home. At the last minute, he was handed a letter declaring: "You are released from active duty, by reason of physical disability." He had already packed up the pre-deployment assessment that said precisely the opposite. The letter also says he's subject to reserve obligation until Feb. 26, 2006.

The Pistorius family, with its three children, ages 6, 5 and 2, is now trying to figure out what to do without a month's wages. "I just put everything off," Wendy Pistorius said. "I paid only the bills I absolutely had to."

The Army took back the family separation allowance he was given when called to Camp McGrady. Frederick Pistorius is working a swing shift at the local tube plant and trying to figure out if the Army still considers him a reservist and if he's going to get another letter from St. Louis.

"I don't want to get arrested in front of my kids," he said.

...

If it ain't over 'til it's over, then why do I feel so awful?

The Bush camp, of course, is pushing the "victory is inevitable" line. On the one hand, I think it's irresponsible of CNN to treat that as if it's, you know, news. (The banner headline at cnn.com right now says "Bush camp certain of win.") On the other hand, for Kerry to pull out a win in Ohio, he'd have to damn near sweep the provisional ballots and the remaining absentee ballots. I don't think that will happen.

Right now I am fighting despair, and losing badly. It comes down to this: if we can't beat this guy, then who could we beat? If we can't make gains in this Senate, if we can't beat Bunning and Coburn, then what do we have left to hope for?

Election Protection

Kos has an update on the battle against Republican vote suppression tactics in Ohio.

Moveon.org offers resources on voting rights and election protection, including a link to this list of the 30 states which require employers to give workers time off to vote.

Over at Gallimaufry, Mary Kay tells us what we can do to protect the right to vote. Frequent Otters commenter Pat Greene offers links to voting rights resources for every state in the nation. Pat and Mary Kay are each traveling to battleground states to work as election monitors - we here at Respectful of Otters give them both a hearty round of applause.

Finally, if you are challenged at the polls on Tuesday, a toll-free hotline has been set up at 1-866-OURVOTE.

"Widespread Vote Fraud:" Applying Some Common Sense

Lots of accusations of Democratic vote fraud are flying around these days, even before the election has happened. Let's apply a little common sense to the three major pieces of "evidence" presented for challenging Democratic voters.

People are registering at addresses where they don't live, as evidenced by returned mail.

The Republican Party of Ohio sent registered letters to tens of thousands of newly registered voters. A lot of those letters came back as undeliverable, which the Republicans claim is prima facie evidence that those voters don't exist at those addresses.

But what happens when someone tries to deliver a registered letter, and you aren't home? Around here, the mail carrier leaves a little slip inviting you to pick up the letter at the post office. And my carrier always notes who the letter is from.

Now imagine that you're a Democrat, and you get a registered letter from the Republican Party. Why on earth would you go all the way down to the post office and wait in line to pick it up? What could the Republican Party possibly have to say that you'd be interested in reading? Most likely, you ignore the letter. Eventually, the post office returns it to the sender as "undeliverable." And your vote gets challenged as fraudulent.

When Catherine Herold received mail from the Ohio Republican Party earlier this year, she refused it.

The longtime Barberton Democrat wanted no part of the mailing and figured that by refusing it, the GOP would have to pay the return postage.

What she didn't count on was the returned mail being used to challenge the validity of her voter registration.

Herold,who is assistant to the senior vice president and provost at the University of Akron,was one of 976 Summit County voters whose registrations were challenged last week by local Republicans on behalf of the state party.

She went to the Board of Elections on Thursday morning to defend her right to vote and found herself among an angry mob -- people who had to take time off work to defend their right to vote.

After hearing some of the protests, the board voted unanimously to dismiss all 976 challenges.

(Via Atrios and Jerome, at MyDD.)

There are more registered voters than eligible voters in some Ohio cities.

What happens when you move, and have to re-register to vote at your new address? You fill out a voter registration card and send it in. The elections board adds you to the rolls for your new precinct and notifies your old precinct that you're no longer registered there. Eventually, your old precinct takes you off the rolls. But that process isn't instantaneous. There's nothing unusual or improper about voters temporarily appearing on the rolls twice, while the bureaucracy grinds through the process of removing them from their previous precinct of record. In particular, it's not surprising that, as voter registration deadlines approach, elections boards are more concerned about adding people to the rolls than they are about removing them from the rolls.

None of this adds up to fraud until a voter actually votes twice. And none of it is under the control of individual voters or organizations conducting voter registration drives. When I moved from the suburbs to the city, it wasn't up to me to tell my suburban precinct not to let me vote there anymore. It was up to the elections board. Did my name appear on the rolls of my suburban precinct for the primary election, when I voted in the city? I have no idea. I didn't try to vote there. So even if my name were on the rolls twice, no fraud was committed.

People have been submitting voter registrations under names like "Mary Poppins" and "Mickey Mouse."

That's what happens when you pay your voter registration workers by the completed form, instead of by the hour. This is perfectly well known, which is why most legitimate voter registration organizations don't give employees or volunteers incentives to forge registrations. Sure, it's fraud on the part of the guy standing outside the supermarket with a clipboard - but is it really going to lead to voter fraud? Could it really be part of a Democratic scheme to stuff the ballot box? I can't see how.

Let's try to imagine how that scenario would play out, shall we?

Someone shows up at the polls in a swing state and tells a pollworker, "My name is Mickey Mouse."

And the pollworker says... "Okay, Mr. Mouse, here's your ballot." The pollwatchers on hand from either party look on, sipping their coffee in unsuspecting bliss.

In what universe would it actually happen that way? Anyone trying to cast a ballot as "Mickey Mouse" is going to be immediately challenged by pollworkers, who, while they may be elderly in most precincts, are hardly so culturally illiterate as to not have heard of the most famous American cartoon character of all time. And even if you imagine a corrupt or clueless pollworker allowing "Mr. Mouse" to pass by unchallenged, it's hard to imagine the partisan pollwatchers doing the same. It is simply ridiculous to imagine that fraudulent ballots could be cast under famously fictional names. And it's even more ridiculous to imagine that Democrats would pursue such a boneheadedly transparent strategy in an attempt to steal the election.

Are Republicans legitimately picturing a smoke-filled room full of Democratic operatives cackling, "we'll register every character in the Disney archive! No one will ever catch on! Our plan is foolproof!" ...Of course they aren't. They're just trying to confuse the issue and set up the rationale for a preemptive challenge of a Kerry victory.

The DLC's New Donkey reminds us that the Ohio vote suppression efforts have Karl Rove's fingerprints all over them, and reminds us of what to expect next.

Advice For The Amoral

If you're going to try to pull off a slimy election trick, you need to do it right.

Say, for example, that you want to accuse your Democratic opponent of distributing hideous flyers that make fun of developmental disabilities. You could have one operative sneak a stack of the flyers into Democratic headquarters, and then send another operative in to "find" them and start an enormous public outcry. Instant media frenzy! Big embarrassment for your opponent!

Sounds simple, right? But, well, okay. I don't want to sound like I think I know more than you do, just because I have a Ph.D. and all, but trust me, this is important: in order for the trick to work, when your second guy goes in to "find" the nasty fliers, they have to still be there.

Looks like the Tennessee congressional campaign of Republican Dave Dahl missed out on that one crucial requirement.

"Someone brought them in and they left. I looked at them and said, 'This is not something we need in here. This goes in the trash,' " she said. "Well, here comes a man up and raising Cain and Mr. (David) Reynolds (the other volunteer) told him they were out in the trash. He went and picked it out of the trash and said, 'Well, this is going in the paper.' "

Both Dahl's campaign and the Traditional Values Coalition insisted that their information about the flyer came from a guy who apparently knows nothing about it.

As Nick Confessore points out, even without the stupid mistakes, nothing about the story passes the smell test.

Think about the phrasing of the flyer. Who on earth is it supposed to convince? People who were planning to vote for Bush but, on reflection, decide they won't want anyone thinking they're a retard? Please. The point of the flyer is to tick off and motivate Bush supporters, while dismaying and demotivating Fitzhugh's supporters and also making it hard for him to win ticket-splitters.

Yeah, we all know one or two really stupid fringe liberals who might make a flyer like this and post it online. But Dahl and the TVC claim that the Dems happily distributed the flyer from their central headquarters for two weeks. In what universe of real people who are paid money for their political expertise would that actually happen?

Update: Kieran writes about this issue at Crooked Timber, in a post that is superior to mine for two reasons: (1) it is much, much shorter, and (2) it refers to "the old pig-fucker strategy."

Republicans Fund Massive Vote Fraud in Nevada

Employees of a private voter registration company allege that hundreds, perhaps thousands of voters who may think they are registered will be rudely surprised on election day. The company claims hundreds of registration forms were thrown in the trash. [...]

The out-of-state firm has been in Las Vegas for the past few months, registering voters. It employed up to 300 part-time workers and collected hundreds of registrations per day, but former employees of the company say that Voters Outreach of America only wanted Republican registrations.

Two former workers say they personally witnessed company supervisors rip up and trash registration forms signed by Democrats. [...]

"We caught her taking Democrats out of my pile, handed them to her assistant and he ripped them up right in front of us. I grabbed some of them out of the garbage and she tells her assistant to get those from me," said Eric Russell, former Voters Outreach employee.

Eric Russell managed to retrieve a pile of shredded paperwork including signed voter registration forms, all from Democrats. We took them to the Clark County Election Department and confirmed that they had not, in fact, been filed with the county as required by law.

The company has been largely, if not entirely funded, by the Republican National Committee. Similar complaints have been received in Reno where the registrar has asked the FBI to investigate.

Most likely, any FBI investigation will be put off until after the election - just as the Florida "felons" wrongly purged from the voter lists in 2000 didn't have their voting rights restored until after the 2002 election was safely passed. What will happen in the meantime?

Needless to say, Nevada's a swing state - estimated by CBS news to be a "toss-up" with less than a month to go before the election. Voter registration closed today. The hundreds or thousands of disenfranchised Democrats appear to have little recourse - unless Republican governor Kenny Guinn steps in to extend the voter registration deadline. Governor Guinn's contact information can be found here.